Abstract
We investigate how individuals infer normative and empirical expectations from social information and how ideological orientation, particularly conservatism, moderates these processes. Building on Bicchieri and Kuang (2022), we plan to conduct two pre-registered survey experiments. Study 1 replicates Bicchieri and Kuang (2022) using a sample of Italian respondents, testing asymmetric inference patterns across positive and negative behaviors and examining the moderating role of social and individual costs (guilt, monetary burden). Study 2 introduces a novel hypothesis on the relationship between ideological conservatism—understood as cognitive rigidity and resistance to change—and reduced receptivity to new empirical and normative information. Results will clarify how ideology shapes norm perception and potential behavioral change.