Examining Geopolitical Risks and Crime Relationship: Insights from Europe

S. Tolga Er (University of Hamburg)

Abstract

Previous research has shown that increasing geopolitical threats and events that arise from armed conflicts, terror, and conflicts among states that disrupt the peaceful course of international relations have severe consequences on society and the economy by causing economic inequality and harming economic growth. Arguing that the economic and social consequences of geopolitical risks lead to diminishing expected utility from legal work, disruption in the norms of the society, and increasing strain on vulnerable people of the society, this study analyzed the association between geopolitical risks and acquisitive crimes in the context of Europe with a sample of 13 countries. The findings revealed that the changes in geopolitical risks and acquisitive crimes, namely, robbery and theft, are positively associated from 1995 to 2016. The study results are robust to the sample of 13 European countries and the cluster of Northern and Western Europe, with 9 countries.

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